Final 4 Prediction

Since my original Final 4 had Texas and Tennessee (I obviously have to lose my affection for the “UTs” of the college world), I am revising based on the actual participants.  Note, I originally had Kansas and UCLA in the Final, but based on what I saw last weekend, I am not so confident in the Jayhawks anymore.

UCLA – Memphis: Memphis has looked unbeatable.  Tremendous athleticism, good balance and arguably the best (future) player on the floor in Derrick Rose.  However, they have some flaws.  Cannot shoot free throws.  I know they made 30-36 against Texas, but I prefer to see this as an aberration than a trend.  They were like 50% all season.  They also are not great outside shooters.

They have enough bigs to swap over on Love — Dozier, Dorsey, Taggart, and even the 300 pounder whose name I cannot remember, but love will abuse that fatty.  Also, Dozier is tough and athletic, but there is a good chance he goes “Last Boy Scout” and gets himself ejected or in foul trouble.  Love is too savvy for him.

Westbook and / or Collison will have to contrain Rose, but I think it can be done.  Shipp will have to play well though.

I think UCLA, more disciplined and tested, and with a better coach, will win.

UNC – Kansas: UNC is the deepest team, has the best and most aggressive player, and falling short of a title is somewhat of a failure.  Kansas has lots of scorers but no one who seems to be able to take over a game, with the exception of Chalmers.  Whereas, I can see Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington and even reserve Green taking over for UNC. 

Just a hunch, but combined with how KU played tight against Davidson, UNC wins.  I think KU is just happy to have made it.  They may play looser because of this, but still don’t see them taking it.

If it comes to UNC – UCLA, figure UNC will take it, but will save that post for tomorrow depending on how today’s games turn out.